On Wednesday, the State Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina handed down a one-year jail sentence to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and banned him from holding political office for six years. The court found Dodik guilty of undertaking actions in July 2023 for the purpose of obstructing the implementation of decisions of the high representative in Bosnia, the top international peace envoy in the Balkan country.
The Office of the High Representative (OHR) oversees the implementation of the civilian aspects of the Dayton Peace Accords, which were signed in 1995 and ended the war in Bosnia. This office has been headed for almost three decades by a succession of European officials. The OHR’s current chief is Christian Schmidt, a former politician from Germany. Dodik has been at odds with Schmidt since the latter’s arrival in Bosnia in 2021.
For domestic and international observers, the court ruling is an interesting twist and heralds uncertainty ahead. Dodik’s coming to power as the president of Republika Srpska in 2006 ushered in a period of constant and continuous crises for Bosnia. For the better part of the past two decades, he has worked to empower himself and the political entity over which he currently presides while undermining and hollowing out the country’s state-level institutions..
Compared with his record of obstructing Bosnia’s progress, failing to abide by Bosnia’s Constitutional Court rulings, denying the genocide and hurling repeated insults at Bosniaks, Dodik’s confrontation with the OHR may have seemed a political offence of lesser magnitude. Yet the sentence, and particularly the ban on his political life for six years, may very well portend the beginning of the political fall of Dodik – or a renewed attempt by him to push Bosnia to the brink.
In response to the sentencing, the Republika Srpska assembly adopted a document late on Wednesday rejecting the court’s ruling and Schmidt’s authority. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, engulfed in his own problems at home amid growing protests, flew the same day to Banja Luka to meet Dodik. Dodik’s lawyer has indicated he would appeal the ruling. Meanwhile, the Republika Srpska assembly adopted draft legislation aimed at preventing the state-level judicial and police institutions from exercising sovereignty in this part of Bosnia.
What lies ahead is more uncertainty. The political stability in Bosnia in the weeks and months ahead could hang in the balance as the country awaits the appeals process to unfold.
As things currently stand, Dodik is powerful in Republika Srpska. He controls his party – the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) – and holds sway over instruments of power both in Republika Srpska and at the state level through his appointees in many institutions. His ability to generate a deeper crisis is real.
On the other hand, he has also overstayed his political welcome. Dodik has been a fixture in Bosnian Serb politics for almost two decades. His dominance in politics and media means that a whole generation currently enrolled in undergraduate studies has known no other political leader. For many Bosnian citizens, he has become synonymous with crises, conflicts and outlandish rhetoric.
While media reports indicate support for Dodik from Vucic, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, Dodik’s political future depends on how Bosnia’s state institutions respond as well as on the depth of his own support base. In other words, his future depends on what happens on the ground in Bosnia.
For years, Dodik had been able to generate and escalate crises to extract concessions in exchange for backing down. And then he kept repeating the pattern. This led some politicians in Sarajevo and many foreign officials to be willing to give in to Dodik for years for the sake of stability. As a result, Dodik accumulated power and resources and exhibited ever-growing arrogance.
A firm stand of Bosnia’s state institutions to implement decisions and stand up to Dodik has long been overdue. This is new to Dodik and may be a key test of how far he is willing to go and how much support he actually commands.
In the weeks and months ahead, three factors are likely to shape the unfolding situation and, by extension, Dodik’s political future: Bosnia’s State Court, Dodik’s power base and Vucic’s support – or the lack thereof.
If the Appeals Chamber rejects Dodik’s appeal and reaffirms the sentence – and particularly the political ban – the Bosnian Serb leader will be vulnerable, and that will mark another standoff with the Bosnian state-level institutions. The ability and willingness of state institutions to enforce such a court ruling will be crucial.
However, if the court overturns the ruling – including due to potential external pressure lest the situation in Bosnia spiral out of control – Dodik would claim victory and feel emboldened.
Second, a weakened Dodik will gauge his support within his party and among his levers of power. Growing fissures within his power base would be a sign that the court rulings are undermining his support. However, the legislation passed by Bosnia’s entity of Republika Srpska on Friday barring the national police and judiciary from its territory signals the Bosnian Serb leader still has loyal supporters and a considerable hold over the Republika Srpska’s major institutions. Dodik could use this legislation to up the ante and serve as a bargaining chip. He has done this before.
Third, as things currently stand, Vucic’s concern with his own domestic protests in Serbia means that he may be less willing and has fewer resources to divert to stoking tension in Bosnia.
Furthermore, as with other long-running political leaders, signs of Dodik’s political weakness may encourage political ambitions of his proteges or close associates to replace him. It would not be surprising if jockeying within his party picks up.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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